ABSTRACT
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 salgının Türkiye'de yükseköğretimden istihdama geçiş sürecinde yol açtığı sonuçları tespit edip, değerlendirmektir. Bu kapsamda Türkiye'deki yükseköğretim kurumlarının lisans programlarından Covid-19 öncesi (2019 Aralık) ve bir yıl sonrası (2020 Aralık) tarihleri itibarıyla, son üç yılda mezun olan yaklaşık bir milyon lisans öğrencisinin, eğitim ve istihdam verileri eşleştirilerek analiz edilmiştir. Lisans mezunlarının eğitim aldıkları alanlara göre kayıtlı istihdam oranları, ilk işe girme süreleri ve kazanç durumlarının yanı sıra eğitim alanı ve meslek eşleşme oranları da Covid-19 öncesi ve bir yıl sonrası olmak üzere mukayese edilmiştir. Yükseköğretim bölümlerinin sınıflandırılması Uluslararası Standart Eğitim Sınıflandırması (ISCED-F) ikinci seviyede yapılırken, meslek sınıflamaları Uluslararası Standart Meslek Kodu (ISCO-08) üçlü seviyede yapılmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre Covid-19 sürecinde kayıtlı istihdamın en çok azaldığı alan %11.8 ile Hukuk olurken, artışın en yüksek olduğu alan ise %7.3‘lük artışla Ormancılık olmuştur. Diğer yandan ortalama reel kazancın en çok azaldığı iki alan Hukuk (369 TL) ve Güvenlik hizmetleri (140 TL) olurken, reel kazancın en çok artış gösterdiği iki alan Veterinerlik (429 TL), Matematik ve Ístatistik (401 TL) olmuştur. Bunların yanı sıra, Covid-19 öncesi lisans mezunlarının ilk işe giriş ortalaması 9,0 ay iken, salgın sonrası bu ortalama 7,6 aya kadar düşmüştür. Son olarak, 2019 yılı sonunda eğitim aldığı alanda çalışanların oranı %67,5 iken, bu oran Covid-19 döneminde % 1,6 azalarak %65,9'e gerilemiştir.Alternate :The purpose of this study is to determine and evaluate the consequences of the Covid-19 epidemic in the transition from higher education to employment in Türkiye. In this regard, the education and employment data of approximately one million undergraduate students who graduated in the last three years from the undergraduate programs of higher education institutions in Türkiye, were matched and compared with pre-Covid-19 (December 2019) and one year later (December 2020). The registered employment rates, the search time for a first job, incomes of undergraduate graduates according to their fields of education were compared before Covid-19 and after one year. While the classifications of higher education departments were made at the second level of the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED-F), the occupational classifications were made at the triple level of the International Standard Occupational Code (ISCO-08). According to the research findings, the area where registered employment decreased the most during the Covid-19 period was Law with 11.8%, while the area with the highest increase was Forestry with an increase of 7.3%. On the other hand, the two fields in which the average real income decreased the most were Law (369 TL) and Security services (140 TL), while the two fields in which the real income increased the most were Veterinary (429 TL), Mathematics and Statistics (401 TL). In addition, while the average months of first job entry for undergraduate graduates before Covid-19 was 9.0 months, this average decreased to 7.6 months after the pandemic. Finally, while the rate of skills match was 67.5% at the end of 2019, this rate decreased by 1.6% and became 65.9% during the Covid-19 period.
ABSTRACT
This paper analyses determinants of household savings in a model based on an extension of the disequilibrium savings theory. These extensions follow from the life-cycle, permanent-income and Ricardian-equivalence theories. Based on panel data of 20 countries from the period 2000–2020, fixed-effect least squares estimation procedures are used. The analysis provides evidence that negative interest rates lead to a statistically and economic significant increase in savings. This implies that stimulating household consumption with a monetary policy of negative interest rates is counter-productive. The positive effect of income uncertainty and lagged saving rates gets smaller for negative interest rates, weakening the support for the disequilibrium-savings theory. Larger government deficits increase savings even more when rates are negative, strengthening the Ricardian equivalence effect. The effect of negative interest on the predictions of the life-cycle and permanent-income theories is mixed.
ABSTRACT
En este trabajo se estiman los efectos spillovers (de derrame) del COVID-19 sobre pleo formal e informal) e ingresos reales de un grupo de provincias del Perú denominadas "tratadas o de tratamiento", en el período del virus 2020-II-2021-IV. Estos spillovers se asocian al comportamiento de las personas que incumplieron el confinamiento, se aglomeraron en espacios relativamente pequeños, no usaron medidas de protección contra el COVID-19. Las mediciones de estos efectos se apoyan en Cao y Dowd (2019) y en la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares del INEI-ENAHO (2022) del período 2011.I-2021-IV, que es la base de datos principal del estudio. Dos resultados principales del estudio son, por un lado, que el COVID-19 y las políticas de confinamiento y transferencias a pobres y empresas contribuyeron en promedio en más del 50 % del decrecimiento del empleo total, el formal y el ingreso real (de la población económicamente activa ocupada provincial), y al incremento de la informalidad para el grupo de provincias tratadas. Por otro lado, los efectos spillovers atenuaron los efectos negativos de la disminución del empleo formal y del ingreso real de dichas provincias.Alternate abstract:This paper estimates the spillovers effects of COVID-19 on employment (total, formal, and informal) and real income of a group of Peruvian provinces called "treated or treatment" in the period of the virus 2020- II-2021-IV. These spillovers are associated with the behavior of people who broke the confinement, crowded into relatively small spaces, and did not use protective measures against COVID-19. The measurements of these effects are based on Cao and Dowd (2019), and on the INEI-ENAHO National Household Survey (2022) for the period 2011.1-2021-IV, which is the main database of the study. Two main results of the study are, on the one hand, that COVID-19 and the confinement policies and transfers to the poor and companies contributed on average to more than 50% of the decrease in total employment, formal employment, and real income (of the economically active population employed in the province), and to the increase in informality for the group of provinces covered. On the other hand, the spillovers effects attenuated the negative effects of the decrease in formal employment and real income in said provinces.
ABSTRACT
Role of money demand occupies a central place in regulating the monetary management of the economy and a topic of keen interest among researchers and academics (Sichei & Kamau, 2012). Growing money demand ensures an upsurge in the economic activity and vice versa. The present study analyzes the money demand function in Pakistan. The ARDL method to co-integration is used on data ranged between 1972 and 2018. The results showed that statistically significant effects of all main hypothesized factors including number of bank branches, population growth rate and agricultural output are found positive, negative and negative, respectively, both in the short-run and long- run. Whereas the effect of traditional factors viz., income and inflation rate on money demand appeared as positive, and statistically significant. The broad money demand function appeared to be stable in Pakistan. Policy to be focused on certain factors is discussed.